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乒乓球-【The Economist】“退欧”急先锋

“我当上辅弼会比在火星上发现‘猫王’(美国已故摇滚歌手)还难约翰逊数年前曾如此躲避自己的政治志向。但从记者到当地议员,从伦敦市长到外交大臣,从“脱欧”领军人物到行将入主唐宁街10号,约翰逊的从政之路印证了他的大志与实力,也充满了明显而赋有争议的个人颜色。

Here we go

Buckle up, Britain. Boris Johnson promises thrills but is heading for a serious spill

英国人,请系好安全带。鲍里斯约翰逊的许诺令人兴奋,但危险重重

Leaders Jul 27th 2019

“Do you look daunted? Do you feel daunted?” asked Boris Johnson of the crowd of Conservative Party members who had just elected him party leader, and thus prime minister. The question was rhetorical, but many of them did look nervous—and so they should. Britain now has its third Tory prime minister since the vote to leave the European Union three years ago. Its deadlocked Parliament is refusing to back the exit deal struck with the eu, even as an October 31st deadline approaches. The pound is wilting at the prospect of crashing out with no deal. Steering a course out of this mess requires an extraordinarily deft political touch. Yet the Tories have gambled, choosing a populist leader who is nobody’s idea of a safe pair of hands.

“你看上去懊丧吗?你是否感到懊丧” 鲍里斯约翰逊(BorisJohnson)问刚刚选他为政党首领和英国辅弼的保守党成员。虽然是个反问句,但他们中的许多人看起来的确很严峻——他们也应该感到严峻。自从三年前脱欧公投以来,英国迎来了第三位保守党辅弼。虽然10月31日是终究期限,但是堕入僵局的议会回绝支撑与欧盟达到的脱欧协议。英镑正因无协议退溃散而精神萎顿要阻挠这种紊乱局势,需求一种十分灵敏的政治手法。可是,保守党却一向博弈,挑选了一位民粹主义领导人,但没有人以为他是牢靠的。

Mr Johnson, who wrote a biography of Winston Churchill and longs for others to see him in that mould, resembles his hero in the sense that he has inherited Britain’s worst crisis since the second world war. Brexit, and a no-deal exit in particular, promises to hurt the economy and leave the country diplomatically isolated in a world where its interests are under threat, as they are right now in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk is existential for the United Kingdom, as Brexit wrenches at the bonds with Scotland and Northern Ireland.

约翰逊曾写过一本温斯顿丘吉尔的列传,他期望他人将他视为丘吉尔。和丘吉尔相似的是:约翰逊接手了二战以来面对最严峻危机的英国。退(尤其是无协议退)有或许对经济晦气,并使该国在外交上孤立于一个利益遭到要挟的国际,就像现在的霍尔木兹海峡相同。这种危险对英国来说是存在的,由于英国退歪曲了它与苏格兰和北爱尔兰之间的联系。

At a time of national gloom, the Tories hope that Mr Johnson’s ebullience will be enough to “ping off the guy-ropes of self-doubt”, as he put it in his jokey acceptance speech. We hope they are right. But in reality his breezy style seems not so much boldly Churchillian as乒乓球-【The Economist】“退欧”急先锋 unthinkingly reckless. To get to Downing Street he has made wild promises about Brexit that he cannot possibly keep. His fantastical approach means he is fast heading for no-deal—and therefore a face-off with Parliament, which seems determined to stop that outcome. Britain should get ready for one of the bumpiest governments in its modern history. It could also be the shortest.

在乒乓球-【The Economist】“退欧”急先锋英国经济低迷时,保守党期望约翰逊的热心能彻底“脱节自我置疑的家伙”。正如他在他愉快的获奖讲演中所说的那样。咱们期望他们是对的。但在实际中,他轻松的风格与其说是斗胆的丘吉尔式的,不如说是愚笨的莽撞。为了入主达唐宁街,他对英国退做出了他无法完成的许诺。他的奇思妙想意味着他正敏捷走向无协议的路途-因而,他将与议会坚持,而议会好像决计阻挠这一成果。英国应该做好预备,迎候其近代史上最糟糕的政府之一。它也或许是最短的。

As they waited for the decision of Tory members, ordinary Britons, who had no say in who would succeed Theresa May as prime minister, were left wondering which version of Mr Johnson they would get. Would it be socially liberal, pro-immigration Boris, or born-again Eurosceptic Boris? Chameleon that he is, Mr Johnson has mimicked the increasingly hardline politics of Tory members. In a surprisingly savage reshuffle, he has appointed right-wingers to his cabinet: Priti Patel, a past advocate of the death penalty, is home secretary, and Dominic Raab, an uncompromising Brexiteer, is foreign secretary. Mr Johnson’s belief that Donald Trump could provide a “lifeboat” to Britain as it abandons the eustopped him from criticising the president, even when Mr Trump belittled the British ambassador to Washington. Such pandering is dangerous at a time when Britain should be standing up to American policy on Iran.

在等候保守党成员做出决议的时分,没有发言权的一般英国人不知道谁将顶替特里萨梅出任辅弼,他们不由想知道他们会得到哪个版别的约翰逊。它是社会自由主义,支撑移民的鲍里斯,仍是重生的欧洲置疑论者鲍里斯?约翰逊是变色龙,他仿照了保守党成员日益强硬的政治风格。在令人惊奇的粗野的内阁改组中,他录用右翼人士进入内阁:曾建议死刑的普里蒂帕特尔(Priti Patel)是内政大臣,而毫不退让的英国退欧者多米尼克拉布(Dnminic Raab)则是外交大臣。约翰逊以为,唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)可以为英国供给一艘“救生艇”,因而他没有批判总统,甚至在特朗普降低英国驻华盛顿大使的时分也是如此。在英国应该坚持美国对伊朗方针的时分,这种拉皮条是危险的。

Most worrying is his otherworldly Brexit plan. Mrs May was undone by making unrealistic promises about the deal Britain would get, pledges she spent two miserable years rowing back from. Mr Johnson has made the same mistake on a larger scale. He swears he will bin the “backstop” designed to avoid a hard border in Ireland, which the eu insists is non乒乓球-【The Economist】“退欧”急先锋-negotiable. He says Britain need not pay the exit bill it agreed on. He has vowed to leave on October 31st, “do or die”. And he says that if the eu does not roll over, it would be “vanishingly inexpensive” for Britain to leave with no deal. Mrs May found the contact with reality hard enough. For Mr Johnson it will be even more brutal.

最令人担忧的是他与众不同的退欧计划。特蕾莎梅对英国将得到的协议做出了不切实际的许诺,她花了两年凄惨的时刻来补偿差错。约翰逊在更大的范围内也犯了相同的过错。他立誓,他将扔掉旨在防止在爱尔兰岛上强硬区分鸿沟的“后备计划”,欧盟坚称这是不行商洽的。他说,说英国不需求付出它此前赞同的脱欧费用。他立誓将于10月31日退欧,“不成功,便成仁”。他还说,假如欧盟不作改动,英国将“极端廉价”地无协议退欧特蕾莎梅觉得平衡实际现已很难了。对约翰逊来说,这将愈加严酷。

The Brexit rollercoaster has one turning that leads away from disaster. Mr Johnson has such a capacity for flip-flopping that, once in Downing Street and faced with the consequences of his promises, it is conceivable that he may simply drop them. His charm might help guide a slightly modified deal through Parliament. Europe is ready to help. But the chance that he will compromise seems slight. Whereas Mrs May had two years to retreat from her overblown commitments, Mr Johnson has just three months to eat his words. The Conservatives’ working majority is only three (and may go down to one after a by-election next week), with plenty of rebels on both the Brexit and Remain wings. So doing a deal would probably mean working with Labour, whose price is a second referendum. That would be a good outcome f乒乓球-【The Economist】“退欧”急先锋or the country, which deserves a chance to say whether the warts-and-all reality of Brexit matches up to the fantasy version it was sold in 2016. But the red lines in which Mr Johnson has entangled himself will probably keep such a deal out of reach.

英国退欧的过山车有一个转弯,能够使之远离灾祸。约翰逊善变,一旦他入主唐宁街就面对完成许诺,能够梦想他或许会爽性扔掉。他的魅力或许有助于引导一项略乒乓球-【The Economist】“退欧”急先锋微修改正的协议在议会取得经过。欧洲乐意供给协助。但他退让的或许性好像微乎其微。特蕾莎梅有两年时刻躲避她夸张言词的许诺,而约翰逊只要三个月的时刻。保守党在工作中的多数票只要3票(下周补选后或许会降到1票),在英国退欧中都有很多的对立派。因而,达到协议或许意味着与工党协作,价值是第2次公投。这对英国来说是件功德,这个国家应该有机会来判别英国退欧的种种实际是否与2016年出售的梦想版别相匹配。可是约翰逊堕入困境的红线或许会使这样的买卖无法达到。

That means the risk is growing that Mr Johnson will set a course for no-deal, billing it as courageous and Churchillian rather than the needless act of self-harm it really is. Some Brexiteers are following his lead in blustering that the warnings of damage to the economy, the union and Britain’s international standing are fake news. Others argue that those are simply the costs of getting Brexit done. But a no-deal exit would not accomplish even that. Talks with the euon unresolved aspects of the relationship would have to resume, only with Britain outside the club and negotiating on worse terms than before. As for upholding democracy, there is no mandate for no-deal, which was not in the Leave prospectus, nor advocated by any party in the last election. Indeed, it is opposed by majorities of both Parliament and the public. Some hardline Brexiteers say Parliament should be suspended so that no-deal can be forced through—in the name of democracy. The grotesqueness of this speaks for itself. Yet Mr Johnson has not ruled it out.

这意味着危险在增加:约翰逊将为无协议退欧设定一条指导方针,他将无协议退欧标榜为勇敢无畏的和丘吉尔式风格的,而不是在实际上毫无必要的自我损伤行为。一些英国退欧人士正仿效他的做法,称英国经济遭到损害的正告、欧盟和英国的国际地位都是假新闻。其他人则以为,这些仅仅完结英国退欧的价值。但即便如此,无协议脱欧也无法完成。只要与欧盟之外的英国商洽,并以比曾经更糟糕的条件进行商洽,才干与欧盟没有处理的问题康复商洽。至于说保护民主,选民并没有授权议会进行无协议脱欧,它既没有写在脱欧规章里,也没有任何政党在前次推举中所建议的。事实上,它遭到议会和大众多数人的对立。一些强硬的英国退欧人士表明,议会应该暂停,这样就能够民主的名义强行经过任何协议。这件事的荒诞是不言自明的。可是,约翰逊并没有扫除这一或许性。

If he tries such a reckless gambit, Parliament must stand in his way. It may be that its only course is a vote of no confidence. That would need at least some Conservative mps to vote to bring down their own government, something that has not happened since rebel Tories helped turf out Neville Chamberlain in 1940. It would mean yet more uncertainty. Today’s polls show a four-party split, making any resulting election a lottery. But wavering Tories should be in no doubt that if Mr Johnson is allowed to suspend d济南地图emocracy to force through a no-deal Brexit that whacks the economy and risks the union, it will not only be a betrayal of the country, it might well spell the end of the Conservative Party. And Mr Johnson be in no doubt that unless he ditches the fantastical promises and gets serious about doing a deal, he may end up being compared not to Churchill, but to Chamberlain.

假如他企图采纳这种莽撞的战略,议会有必要阻挠他。或许仅有的出路是投不信任投票。这至少需求一些保守党议员投票才干推翻他们自己的政府,这是自1940年保守党协助击溃内维尔张伯伦以来从未发生过的工作。这将意味着更多的不确认性。今日的民意调查显现,英国四党割裂,任何由此发生的推举都不确认。但摇摆不定的保守党应该毫不置疑,假如答应约翰逊暂停民主,强行经过一场冲击经济、损害工会的无协议英国退欧,那将不仅是对英国的变节,也很或许意味着保守党的完结。毫无疑问,约翰逊应该意识到,除非他扔掉那些不切实际的许诺,认真对待一项买卖,不然他终究或许会被比作张伯伦,而不是丘吉尔。

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